Is This The Best Matched Betting Offer Ever?

The offer in question is the 2UP Early Payout offer, currently available with bookmakers Bet365 and Paddy Power.

The beauty of this offer is that it has the perfect blend of being very low risk, gives high returns and is simple to set up. This is why I think the early payout offer could well be the best matched betting offer we’ve ever seen.

How The Offer Works

If the team you bet on (back) go 2 goals up, the bookmaker will settle and pay your bet as a winner.
So, say your team were to go 2-0 up in the first 10 minutes. Your bet would be paid as a winning bet and you would see your winnings in your account, even though the game is still being played.

The early payout offer on Bet365

Example: Man City v Man United – November 11th, 2018

I placed a £1000 bet with Bet365 on Man City to win (and layed/bet against Man City, to make the offer low risk). As we can see, Man City scored in the 12th and 48th minute to go 2 goals up. This triggered the offer and I got paid out as a winner instantly, even though only 48 minutes (out of 90 minutes) of the game had been played.

A few minutes after Man City went 2-0 up I received the following message in my Bet365 account:

How We Can Profit From The 2UP Early Payout Offer

The strategy is quite simple:
1 – Place a bet on a team with Bet365 or Paddy Power (known as your back stake).

2 – Bet against your team by placing a lay bet with Smarkets.

This means regardless of the result, the worst case scenario will be a small qualifying loss. We can use the Oddsmonkey Early Payout Calculator to work out our lay stake. The calculator also shows us exactly what our qualifying loss will be whatever the result of the match.

I’ve used the Man City v Man United match again to show what I did. I entered my back stake of £1000 (this offer works with any size stake, so start small and build up). The calculator shows me to place a £992.91 lay bet at Smarkets.

A Worst Case Scenario Of -£7.09

The above example leaves us with a worst case scenario of -£7.09 whatever happens in the game. This can be seen in the Profit Breakdown section. If Man City didn’t go 2 goals up, I’d just take the small qualifying loss and move on to the next offer.

But, as we know, Man City did go 2 goals up. You can see on the Oddsmonkey calculator there is a section asking if the bookmaker has paid out early. When Man City went 2 goals up in the 48th minute, I changed the option to yes. Now let’s look at the huge potential of this offer. 

Potential Profit Of +£1392.91

We can see that if the game went on to finish a draw or Man City lose I would make a profit of +£1392.91.

The profit is big because I would win my lay bet at Smarkets and my Bet365 back bet (which has already been paid, despite it being a losing bet if the game ended as a draw or a Man City loss).

Unfortunately for me on this occasion, Man City went on to win 3-1 so I made a loss of -£7.09.

Man United did get back to 2-1 to get me slightly excited, at which stage I could have chosen to lock in some profit. This can be calculated by entering the in-play Smarkets back odds in the Early Payout section. I entered the in-play back odds of 1.2, see below.

Back In-Play To Lock In A Profit

The calculator shows if I placed an in-play back stake of £1166.67, it would’ve locked in a profit of +226.24 regardless of the outcome of the game.

It also would have been possible to lock in a profit at 2-0. However, the in-play Smarkets back odds on Man City would have been very low. In my opinion, it would not have been worth taking such a small profit given the upside if a goal or two went in my favour.

My Strategy

My strategy (if my team is 2 goals up) is to always wait for the game to get to a draw before trading out. When the game is a draw the in-play odds are often high enough on Smarkets to lock in a profit close to the maximum potential profit. This results in much higher profits long term.

Taking a profit when the game is a draw also protects against the possibility of my team going on to score a winner, which would mean I’d end up back with the small qualifying loss.

As you can imagine, the scenario where a team loses a two goal lead doesn’t happen all that often. So my strategy can be really frustrating but highly rewarding when the comeback happens. The key is placing as many bets as possible and having a lot of patience! I’d recommend committing to placing at least 100-200 of these bets. 

The Importance Of Finding Close Odds

It is essential the back odds at Bet365 or Paddy Power are close to the Smarkets lay odds. The two main reasons being:

1 – We get great implied odds, therefore, more value.

2 – We keep qualifying losses low. Especially important considering we can have long runs without making any profit.

I try to stick to a rule of laying one tick away from the back odds. By ‘tick’, I mean the next available odds that it is possible to lay at.  For example, using the Man City back odds of 1.4, I’d need the lay odds at Smarkets to be 1.41. As seen below:

Smarkets display the back odds in green and the lay odds in blue. We can see the lay odds here are 1.41

If the back odds at Smarkets match the back odds at Bet365 and Paddy Power, it is likely the Smarkets lay odds will be the next tick away.

Implied Odds

By backing at 1.4 and laying at 1.41 we are getting implied odds of over 196 (195/1) for the team going two goals up and then losing the lead. This is calculated by:

Potential profit/qualifying loss = Implied odds

Our example:

£1392.91/£7.09 = 196.46

By only placing these back and lay bets when the odds are close we are getting outstanding value. The value is a result of us securing much higher odds than the real chance of it happening. This is why we profit in the long term.

I hope I made some sense!

I intend to include a FAQ section here at the bottom of this post. So please ask any questions if you are not sure about anything. This will help me include the most relevant information. Thank You!