Last Updated on March 12, 2021 by Ben Adams
If you want to really boost your profits, it’s well worth taking time to understand matched betting casino offers.
Casino offers aren’t strictly matched betting, in the sense that we can’t bet against ourselves and lock in a profit.
However, we can use similar ideas and strategies to take advantage of these promotions too.
What Are Matched Betting Casino Offers?
Betting companies often offer casino bonuses to entice customers to gamble using their casino games.
Similar to bookmaker’s sport offers, some of these offers provide value when matched betting.
Unlike the bookmaker’s new account offers, however, we won’t be making a profit every single time.
In fact, we will sometimes be taking a loss.
The idea is to only play casino games when we have a bonus that gives us a long term edge.
Bankroll management and patience are two key factors to being successful when doing matched betting casino offers.
Before jumping in, let’s look at how online casino games are made especially to take your money.
Understanding this can help you avoid the pitfalls of gambling.
Furthermore, it will give you a better mindset when tackling matched betting casino offers.
How Online Casino Games Are Designed To Make You Lose
I’m sure you will have heard some stories of people winning big at a casino or from playing online casino games.
While this is possible, it’s important to remember the casinos always make more money than these individual large wins.
Just like bookmakers with sports betting, casinos make money by offering their customers poor value and unfair odds.
Casinos use unfair odds to make a margin known as the ‘house edge’.
Generally, the online slot machine games you can play online have a house edge of around 5%.
Essentially this means that, on average, for every £100 that you put into a slot, it will pay you back £95.
You will lose 5% of your money in the long term.
I hope you see that casino games are a terrible investment!
A common casino game that has a smaller house edge (around 2.7%) is European Roulette.
On a European Roulette table, there are 37 numbers (0-36).
If you were to place a £1 bet on a single number, the odds of you winning are 1 in 37.
So, if the odds were fair, a winning £1 bet should return £37.
However, If the bet does win, you receive £36.
Of course, you could get lucky and win a nice profit, but if you carried on playing, in the long run, you would lose.
As you can imagine, it would be terrible marketing for casinos to say:
Come and play this slot! You give us £100 and we’ll give you £95 back!
By law, casinos must display what a game’s house edge is.
However, many gamblers won’t even care to look or even know what it means if they see it.
Instead, their attention is drawn away by the fancy colours and graphics used for casino games.
Despite these games looking exciting and fun, they are all just random number generators.
Behind all the nice flashy pictures, you’d see something that looks more like this:
A simplified example would look something like this:
A player bets £1 and clicks ‘spin’.
The random number generator slot picks a number between 1-100.
If the number is above 55, the player wins a certain amount.
If the number is less than 55, the casino keeps the £1.
All of a sudden the game doesn’t seem so exciting.
So, of course, casinos dress the random number generators up to be engaging and exciting.
Instead of seeing plain numbers roll by, players see sexy symbols and bonus features.
These are all designed specifically to make players feel many different emotions.
To name a few, for example:
– happy to see certain symbols lined up
– excited to see potential big wins
– unlucky when they miss out on a bonus feature by one
The emotions players feel can be addictive and keep them coming back for more.
Yet remember, behind all of this, is a simple random number generator.
Music And Sound Effects
Similar to the attractive visuals, audio also plays a part in the design to take your money.
These games have sound effects to multiply the emotions just mentioned.
Some slots play addictive, repetitive music in the background.
Others play celebratory tunes when players win.
Some have tense music and slow down the last reel spin if a player is ‘close’ to a bonus round feature.
All these tactics make the gameplay much more enjoyable, exciting and inevitably addictive.
While there is nothing wrong with making games fun, I think the line should be drawn where it is a game specifically designed to take money from people.
Are Casino Slots And Games Fixed?
Now that I’ve thoroughly shamed online casinos, you may be thinking, ‘Can I trust these casinos and their games!?’.
I wouldn’t blame anyone for thinking that.
However, I don’t believe casino games are fixed in any way.
Casinos are governed by independent authorities to ensure they stick to their stated house edge.
Besides this, we now understand that casinos already know they will win in the long term because of their unfair games.
They don’t need to fix or cheat their games in order to win.
Here are some other reasons why it is highly unlikely casino games are fixed:
The ONLY Way To Beat The Casino
Now that we know casinos build their unfair house edge into games, how is it possible to ever beat them?
We can beat them by using their casino offers against them.
Some casino offers provide enough value for us to not only cancel out the house edge but also give us our own edge.
Just like bookmaker’s free bet offers, some casino offers are loss leaders.
This means that the casinos know they will lose money on these promotions.
However, they do this in the hope that overall, their customers will continue playing their games and ultimately lose in the long run.
We can target the specific casino offers that give us the edge and beat the casino at their own game.
How To Work Out If A Casino Offer Is Worth It
To work out if a matched betting casino offer is worth doing, we need to know if we have an edge or not.
We can work out our exact edge by working out an offer’s Expected Value (EV).
What Is Expected Value?
The definition (and calculation) of Expected Value (EV) can seem quite complicated.
For matched betting purposes, I think it’s easier to understand it as:
The amount of money you can expect to make from an offer if you could repeat that offer many times over.
Of course, we cant keep doing the same offer over and over again (unless you are multi accounting).
However, we can keep doing a variety of casino offers from different bookmakers and casinos that have a positive Expected Value.
By doing this, we can expect to make a profit in the long term.
This is exactly what bookmakers and casinos do.
They don’t mind losing sometimes, they are in it for the long run.
Therefore, by being patient and only doing +EV offers when we have an edge, we will be rewarded.
How To Calculate The EV Of A Casino Offer
When we have enough information, we can work out the EV of an offer.
We need to know the:
– total bonus amount
– house edge
– bonus wagering requirements
With these three values we can then use this calculation:
EV = (Total bonus) – (House edge) x (Wagering requirement)
You can of course work this out manually by searching for the right information.
Alternatively, matched betting sites like Oddsmonkey make it very easy by listing all casino offers each day that have a positive Estimated Value.
Furthermore, Oddsmonkey will show you:
– what the EV of an offer is
– the eligible games for the offer
– the wagering requirements
– recommended games to play to maximise profits
– other relevant helpful tips as and when necessary.
Here is an example of how Oddsmonkey breaks down a matched betting casino offer.
We know what the EV is instantly before starting the offer.
After that, we can simply follow each step to complete the offer.
Understanding And Dealing With Variance
If you have read up to here, you’re probably starting to realise that matched betting casino offers are a great opportunity.
Completing these offers are straightforward, however, the hardest part without a doubt is dealing with variance.
Variance refers to how far results can vary from the total Estimated Value (EV) you have taken.
It’s important to remember that the EV of an offer is based on mathematical probability, it’s not a guarantee.
If several people complete say, 100 casino offers with an EV of £3, this doesn’t mean they will all make a £300 profit.
Some would be below, some around the £300 mark and others would be above it.
And this is what variance is.
This is unlike matched betting sports offers where we build our profits and bankroll slowly and steadily with little to no risk.
With matched betting casino offers we need to approach and prepare things differently.
Volume Is Your Friend
The more +EV offers you complete, the closer you’ll get to the total amount of EV you have taken.
This is because the mathematical probability becomes more and more likely over a large sample size.
So, the aim is to complete as many +EV offers as you possibly can.
Alongside this, it’s really important to manage your bankroll carefully.
Because of variance, it is essential to be using a bankroll that can handle the inevitable swings.
For example, there would be no point in completing £1000 of +EV offers only for you to lose all your bankroll and never allow the long term maths to play into your favour.
The key here is to only risk a small percentage of your betting bankroll on any single casino offer.
I have generally stuck to risking a maximum of 0.5% of my bankroll per offer.
Be A Robot
Dealing with the downswings of variance can be emotionally challenging.
It’s not uncommon to have long runs where you aren’t making any profit.
This can be highly frustrating when you are spending time to complete the offers.
My challenge to you is to try your best to act almost robotic.
By this I mean:
complete the offer > record the profit/loss > move on to the next offer
Try not to dwell on bad runs, and likewise, don’t over celebrate good runs.
I just think it’s better trying to work on autopilot and keep taking +EV.
This helps you remain professional, gives you a long term edge and will grow your matched betting business.
Final Thoughts On Matched Betting Casino Offers
Matched betting casino offers have become an essential part of making a decent extra income from matched betting.
They provide an alternative income stream to matched betting sports offers.
However, be prepared for the main differences highlighted through this post.
I would suggest starting with the risk-free or very low-risk casino offers listed in Oddsmonkey‘s Casino Hub.
Although the Estimated Value of these offers are generally low, they will get you familiar with matched betting casino offers.
After that, considering you have a large enough bankroll, you could look to take on casino offers with more risk.
Remember all the while, how the casino games are designed and how you now know the ONLY way to beat them.